ARPU and High Churn Market Environment, Indonesia Mobile Operators

Despite a Low-ARPU and High Churn Market Environment, Indonesia Mobile Operators…

Wed Nov 5, 2008 11:00pm EST

Despite a Low-ARPU and High Churn Market Environment, Indonesia Mobile Operators Continue to be Some of the Most Profitable in the World

DUBLIN, Ireland–(Business Wire)–

Research and Markets

(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b66e5e/4q_2008_indonesia)

has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.’s new report

“4Q 2008 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2010” to their

offering.

“At 11.0%, Indonesia has by far the highest level of churn among

the 200+ mobile operators we cover,” said Wency Yee, Research

Associate. “ARPU in 2Q08 was USD5.64, among the lowest in the world

and ARPU declines accelerated to 22.1% YoY in 2Q08, compared to -15.7%

in 1Q08.

This makes Indonesia’s mobile operator environment one of the

most challenging in the world, with operators caught in a low-ARPU,

high churn market environment,” said Ms. Yee.

“However, despite this environment, EBITDA margins among

Indonesian mobile operators are some of the highest in the world with

reported EBITDA margins at 56.0% in 2Q08,” said Ms. Yee. “We are

forecasting an average industry-wide EBITDA margin of 63.8% in 2010,

partly due to an expected ARPU recovery and partly due to the fact

that data (in the form of SMS) forms an important part of revenue at

Indonesian mobile operators,” said Ms. Yee.

This Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 financial

and operational metrics on wireless operators in Indonesia. Notable

highlights of the 4Q08 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast include:

During the forecast period from 2008 to 2010, we expect the

subscriber base in Indonesia to increase from the current 116.4

million in 2Q.2008 to 130.9 million in 2010.

– Given 2Q.08 numbers, we are revising downward our EBITDA margin

predictions for Indonesia going forward. Average margins in the

industry are now forecasted to be 63.8% in 2010.

– We now expect service revenue growth among Indonesian operators

by 17% in 2008 and gradually decline to 10% in 2010 (previously 20%

and 12%, respectively).

This series of Global Mobile Operator Forecasts covers up to 65

operational metrics of 213 mobile operators in 50+ countries, making

up 80% of the world’s population. Forecasts are based on our

proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy

multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate

relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment

data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a

particular country; and relate these to company operational and

financial metrics.

Key Topics Covered:

– Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY04-CY10

– Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Jun 05 – Jun 08

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast:

– Telkomsel

– Satelindo + IM3

– Excelcomindo

– Telkom Flexi

– StarOne

– Other new entrants

For more information visit

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b66e5e/4q_2008_indonesia.

Research and Markets

Laura Wood

Senior Manager

press@researchandmarkets.com

Fax from USA: 646-607-1907

Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716

Copyright Business Wire 2008

~ by telcoindustry on May 13, 2009.

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